Carter Edwards, Strategic Policy (USA)
The analytic consensus in the West is that Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine was a huge mistake which he must now regret. The attack has been a costly failure and Putin is now looking for an exit strategy. The latest evidence is Russia’s retreat from Kiev, with the suggestion of a shift to more limited war aims – the capture of Donbas. Whether this picture is correct or very wrong matters greatly. It will determine Western policy – based on perceptions on who is “winning” – and therefore how this war plays out. But more importantly, it bears on the long-range strategic decisions required of Western leaders as world stability teeters on the brink of chaos.